Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 21:18:26 GMT -5
There were multiple, intersecting logics that explain why my bid made sense, at that moment in the bidding---if you want an explanation. Mainly, Strasburg is high-risk health-wise. As the numbers increase, there becomes a huge difference between betting 80m on Strasburg being healthy, and betting in the neighborhood of 150m. I was willing to go 23-25m, for 4 years--but no more than 100m total, and no more than 4 years. This was my same logic with Ryan Braun: I was willing to go 90m total for a 34yo with health risks, but I was not going to risk more than that. And I really wanted to keep Braun.
Then there were secondary reasons, secondary logics. At 36m, I thought it was still feasible that another bid could come along and top it. At 40m, I knew it would take a BP of over 50 to top it. Additionally, this whole time I rated the odds as nearly 100% that Scrubs would match a 5 year/under 30m deal. At 40m for just 2 years, it is not that attractive a contract, and I thought that would take the odds of Scrubs matching down to 50/50.
So for my team, 40m is just a bit more than 40% of my cap space for this year. When free agency started out, I had more than double the cap of anyone else. So 40m to me is like 20m for everybody else. That cap advantage would be wiped out if I win this bid.
Next, Strasburg has in MLB something like a 25m/year contract for 7 years, I think. Some of those years, his peak prime years, he is going to be worth a lot more than 25m---and some years, much less. So I am betting that in his age 28 and 29 seasons, he could be worth or "earn" close to 40m. The Nats had to commit close to 200m to have Strasburg; I only had to commit 80. So even if he only earns 25-35m, the rest of the money is kind of a finance fee to have him on a short commitment.
Lastly, before I submitted the bid I checked and saw Scrubs has almost 40m cap space for this year. It would be pretty easy for him to clear a little room and fit Stras in; easy, but not as easy as it would be for me. So that's why I think it is 50-50 that he matches the bid.
Then there were secondary reasons, secondary logics. At 36m, I thought it was still feasible that another bid could come along and top it. At 40m, I knew it would take a BP of over 50 to top it. Additionally, this whole time I rated the odds as nearly 100% that Scrubs would match a 5 year/under 30m deal. At 40m for just 2 years, it is not that attractive a contract, and I thought that would take the odds of Scrubs matching down to 50/50.
So for my team, 40m is just a bit more than 40% of my cap space for this year. When free agency started out, I had more than double the cap of anyone else. So 40m to me is like 20m for everybody else. That cap advantage would be wiped out if I win this bid.
Next, Strasburg has in MLB something like a 25m/year contract for 7 years, I think. Some of those years, his peak prime years, he is going to be worth a lot more than 25m---and some years, much less. So I am betting that in his age 28 and 29 seasons, he could be worth or "earn" close to 40m. The Nats had to commit close to 200m to have Strasburg; I only had to commit 80. So even if he only earns 25-35m, the rest of the money is kind of a finance fee to have him on a short commitment.
Lastly, before I submitted the bid I checked and saw Scrubs has almost 40m cap space for this year. It would be pretty easy for him to clear a little room and fit Stras in; easy, but not as easy as it would be for me. So that's why I think it is 50-50 that he matches the bid.
